Analysing the impact of increasing renewable energy shares on Algerian energy system for prospective transition scenarios

Abstract

Algerian energy policy goes forward with the diversification of resources and the integration of renewables to ensure energy security with less pollution. The aim of this study is a long-term evaluation of electricity production from renewable energy resources in the south of Algeria. This production is mainly based on solar and wind installations, which are convenient for desert climates and have a relatively long lifetime. The presentation of energy resource maps shows that the Saharan region has important high solar radiation and significant wind energy in the southern regions. Also, this entire region is characterized by wide flat areas, which allow huge expansion to develop profitable photovoltaic and wind farms. In this study, EnergyPLAN and MATLAB software have been used in modelling the hourly distribution and the numerical simulation. The progressive integration of renewable energy started with available data in 2015 and continues following the national renewable energy programme. The results obtained illustrate that by 2050, fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions can be significantly reduced. The cumulative primary energy savings could be more than 183 Toe by 2050. The prospect also shows that CO₂ emissions can reach a 58% reduction in comparison with the Business-As-Usual model. This level of pollutant emission represents a significant effort to close the environmental protection gap and keep fossil fuels available for the development of clean uses.